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Lanus vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Lanus
Lanus
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
E. Salvio 23'
Marcelino Moreno 5'
2/2/2025Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 3Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Lanus49%
×Draw30%
Sarmiento Junin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanus
1.24
Sarmiento Junin
0.71

Lanus creates 75% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

creates per match

Lanus
1.22
Sarmiento Junin
0.54

allows per match

Lanus
0.87
Sarmiento Junin
1.26

finishing

Lanus-0.09on par
Sarmiento Junin+0.21scores more

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Sarmiento Junin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Lanus or draw
79%
Lanus or Sarmiento Junin
70%
Draw or Sarmiento Junin
51%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+
22%
Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals
71%
Lanus 2+ goals
35%
Lanus 3+ goals
13%
Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
51%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
16%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)
70%
Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.26 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.22 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.24

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.54 + Lanus defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lanus scores more
49%
level
30%
Sarmiento Junin scores more
21%

Lanus at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
Marcelino MorenoLanusLanus · M
10.0

Match Events

5'
Marcelino Moreno↳ J. Caceres
23'
E. Salvio↳ Marcelino Moreno
25'
C. Izquierdoz
33'
Goal Disallowed - offside
46'
T. Guiacobini← F. Paradela
46'
I. Morales← G. Carabajal
46'
J. Gho← G. Diaz
54'
P. Magnin
55'
F. Frias← P. Magnin
60'
F. Pena Biafore
67'
L. Acosta← A. Segovia
67'
D. Aquino← E. Salvio
73'
B. Cabrera←
73'
V. Burgoa← L. Suhr
83'
A. Medina← F. Pena Biafore
83'
A. Canelo← W. Bou
85'
J. Insaurralde

Possession

50%Lanus

Shots

15Lanus

Pass accuracy

51%Lanus

Statistics

LanusSarmiento
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots10
1Corners6
11Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots10
5On Target5
7Off Target3
3Blocked2
12Inside Box4
3Outside Box6
Passing
50%Possession50%
466Total Passes459
378Accurate Passes362
81%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
11Fouls10
2Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Lanus 2–0 Sarmiento Junin

Lanus beat Sarmiento Junin 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on February 2, 2025.

Goals: Marcelino Moreno (5'), E. Salvio (23').

Lanus controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.