Lanus vs Independ. Rivadavia — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 15+ matches
Lanus43%
Independ. Rivadavia26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Lanus creates 39% more chances
Season form · 15 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No61
- Yes39
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Lanus ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Lanus at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches
Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.07 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Lanus attack 1.22 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15
Independ. Rivadavia attack 0.80 + Lanus defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.83
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 43%?"
Lanus at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 43% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Boca Juniors
Rosario Central
Estudiantes L.P.
Argentinos JRS
River Plate
Racing Club
Gimnasia L.P.
Belgrano Cordoba
Velez SarsfieldLanusIndepend. Rivadavia
Union Santa Fe
San Lorenzo
Talleres Cordoba
Tigre
Barracas Central
Huracan
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
Banfield
Sarmiento Junin
Defensa Y Justicia
Instituto Cordoba
Atletico Tucuman
Newells Old Boys
Platense
Aldosivi
San Martin S.J.
Gimnasia M.
Godoy Cruz
Estudiantes de Rio CuartoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Lanus host Independ. Rivadavia on Sunday, 12 May 2024 at 20:45. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2026/2027 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: Lanus 0–2 Independ. Rivadavia
Independ. Rivadavia beat Lanus 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 12, 2024.
Goals: F. Petrasso (9'), M. Reali (83').
Lanus controlled possession (64%) and registered 18 shots to 7.
The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.