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Lanus vs Gimnasia L.P. — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Lanus
Lanus
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimnasia L.P.
Gimnasia L.P.
10/1/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Lanus44%
×Draw29%
Gimnasia L.P.27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanus
1.22
Gimnasia L.P.
0.89

Lanus creates 37% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 26 away

creates per match

Lanus
1.22
Gimnasia L.P.
0.90

allows per match

Lanus
0.87
Gimnasia L.P.
1.22

finishing

Lanus-0.09on par
Gimnasia L.P.-0.09on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanus ↓

Gimnasia L.P. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Lanus or draw
73%
Lanus or Gimnasia L.P.
71%
Draw or Gimnasia L.P.
56%

Winning margin

Lanus wins by 2+
19%
Gimnasia L.P. wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lanus 1+ goals
70%
Lanus 2+ goals
34%
Lanus 3+ goals
12%
Gimnasia L.P. 1+ goals
59%
Gimnasia L.P. 2+ goals
22%
Gimnasia L.P. 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Lanus (draw refunded)
62%
Gimnasia L.P. (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanus at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Gimnasia L.P. away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.22 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanus attack 1.22 + Gimnasia L.P. defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.22

Gimnasia L.P. attack 0.90 + Lanus defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lanus scores more
44%
level
29%
Gimnasia L.P. scores more
27%

Lanus at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lanus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Y. CabralGimnasia L.P.Gimnasia L.P. · D
7.7

Match Events

31'
J. Cáceres← N. Morgantini
33'
E. Martinez
46'
Marcelino Moreno
46'
D. Aquino← F. Peña
60'
N. Garayalde
65'
L. Díaz← R. Carrera
66'
G. Canto← V. Rodríguez
79'
Lautaro Acosta← E. Salvio
80'
L. Boggio← G. Pérez
80'
A. Max← N. Garayalde
90'
M. Fernandez
90+5'
R. Gallo← D. Zalazar

Possession

67%Lanus

Shots

22Lanus

Pass accuracy

56%Lanus

Statistics

LanusGimnasia
Overview
67%Possession33%
22Total Shots8
1.13Expected Goals (xG)0.70
6Corners3
10Fouls14
Shots
22Total Shots8
4On Target2
12Off Target5
6Blocked1
12Inside Box5
10Outside Box3
Passing
67%Possession33%
476Total Passes243
404Accurate Passes160
85%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
0.48Goals Prevented0.48
Discipline
10Fouls14
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards2
3Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Lanus 0–0 Gimnasia L.P.

Lanus and Gimnasia L.P. drew 0-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 1, 2024.

Lanus controlled possession (67%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Lanús - Néstor Díaz Pérez in Lanús, Provincia de Buenos Aires.