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Lansing Ignite vs Greenville Triumph — USL League One 2019

Lansing Ignite
Lansing Ignite
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Greenville Triumph
Greenville Triumph
5/11/2019USL League OneUSL League One · Round 3Cooley Law School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lansing Ignite46%
×Draw25%
Greenville Triumph29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lansing Ignite
1.59
Greenville Triumph
1.21

Lansing Ignite creates 31% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 104 away

creates per match

Lansing Ignite
1.87
Greenville Triumph
1.29

allows per match

Lansing Ignite
1.13
Greenville Triumph
1.31

finishing

Lansing Ignite+0.00on par
Greenville Triumph+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lansing Ignite ↓

Greenville Triumph →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Lansing Ignite or draw
71%
Lansing Ignite or Greenville Triumph
75%
Draw or Greenville Triumph
54%

Winning margin

Lansing Ignite wins by 2+
24%
Greenville Triumph wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Lansing Ignite 1+ goals
80%
Lansing Ignite 2+ goals
47%
Lansing Ignite 3+ goals
21%
Greenville Triumph 1+ goals
70%
Greenville Triumph 2+ goals
34%
Greenville Triumph 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)
61%
Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lansing Ignite at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Greenville Triumph away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lansing Ignite attack 1.87 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.59

Greenville Triumph attack 1.29 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lansing Ignite scores more
46%
level
25%
Greenville Triumph scores more
29%

Lansing Ignite at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lansing Ignite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lansing Ignite vs Greenville Triumph

Lansing Ignite and Greenville Triumph drew 1-1 in USL League One on May 11, 2019.

The match was played at Cooley Law School Stadium in Lansing, Michigan.