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Lansing Ignite vs Chattanooga Red Wolves — USL League One 2019

Lansing Ignite
Lansing Ignite
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves
7/31/2019USL League OneUSL League One · Round 9Cooley Law School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Lansing Ignite50%
×Draw24%
Chattanooga Red Wolves26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lansing Ignite
1.73
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.17

Lansing Ignite creates 48% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 100 away

creates per match

Lansing Ignite
1.87
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.20

allows per match

Lansing Ignite
1.13
Chattanooga Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Lansing Ignite+0.00on par
Chattanooga Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lansing Ignite ↓

Chattanooga Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lansing Ignite or draw
74%
Lansing Ignite or Chattanooga Red Wolves
76%
Draw or Chattanooga Red Wolves
50%

Winning margin

Lansing Ignite wins by 2+
27%
Chattanooga Red Wolves wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lansing Ignite 1+ goals
82%
Lansing Ignite 2+ goals
52%
Lansing Ignite 3+ goals
25%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 1+ goals
69%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 2+ goals
33%
Chattanooga Red Wolves 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Lansing Ignite (draw refunded)
66%
Chattanooga Red Wolves (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lansing Ignite at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.13 · 15 matches

Chattanooga Red Wolves away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.59 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lansing Ignite attack 1.87 + Chattanooga Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.73

Chattanooga Red Wolves attack 1.20 + Lansing Ignite defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lansing Ignite scores more
50%
level
24%
Chattanooga Red Wolves scores more
26%

Lansing Ignite at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lansing Ignite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Lansing Ignite 2–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves

Lansing Ignite beat Chattanooga Red Wolves 2-0 in USL League One on July 31, 2019.

The match was played at Cooley Law School Stadium in Lansing, Michigan.