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Langwarrin vs Werribee City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Werribee City
Werribee City
6/21/2024Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 19Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Langwarrin48%
×Draw21%
Werribee City31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
2.08
Werribee City
1.65

Langwarrin creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.82
Werribee City
1.29

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.01
Werribee City
2.33

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
Werribee City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Werribee City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
69%
Langwarrin or Werribee City
79%
Draw or Werribee City
52%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
28%
Werribee City wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
87%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
61%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
34%
Werribee City 1+ goals
81%
Werribee City 2+ goals
49%
Werribee City 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
61%
Werribee City (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.01 · 68 matches

Werribee City away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.82 + Werribee City defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

Werribee City attack 1.29 + Langwarrin defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Langwarrin scores more
48%
level
21%
Werribee City scores more
31%

Langwarrin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Langwarrin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langwarrin vs Werribee City

Langwarrin beat Werribee City 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on June 21, 2024.

The match was played at Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1 in Langwarrin South.