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Langwarrin vs Northcote City — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Northcote City
Northcote City
A. Webb 33'
G. Serdenes 58'
K. Hallam 45'
T. Swaby 37'
2/27/2026Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Langwarrin39%
×Draw22%
Northcote City40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
1.85
Northcote City
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 67 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.85
Northcote City
1.72

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.03
Northcote City
1.84

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
Northcote City+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Northcote City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
60%
Langwarrin or Northcote City
78%
Draw or Northcote City
61%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
20%
Northcote City wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
84%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
55%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
28%
Northcote City 1+ goals
85%
Northcote City 2+ goals
56%
Northcote City 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
49%
Northcote City (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 67 matches

Northcote City away — creates 1.72, concedes 1.84 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.85 + Northcote City defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.85

Northcote City attack 1.72 + Langwarrin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Langwarrin scores more
39%
level
22%
Northcote City scores more
40%

Northcote City at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Northcote City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
N. Holmes
33'
A. Webb
37'
T. Swaby
45'
K. Hallam
58'
G. Serdenes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langwarrin vs Northcote City

Northcote City beat Langwarrin 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on February 27, 2026.

Goals: A. Webb (33'), T. Swaby (37'), K. Hallam (45'), G. Serdenes (58').