Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Langwarrin vs Melbourne Srbija — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Melbourne Srbija
Melbourne Srbija
A. Macphee 82'
E. Rossi 83'
M. Basic 58'
C. Davies 11'
8/2/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 24Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Langwarrin38%
×Draw23%
Melbourne Srbija39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
1.69
Melbourne Srbija
1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 23 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.85
Melbourne Srbija
1.39

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.03
Melbourne Srbija
1.52

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
Melbourne Srbija+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Melbourne Srbija →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
61%
Langwarrin or Melbourne Srbija
77%
Draw or Melbourne Srbija
62%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
19%
Melbourne Srbija wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
82%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
50%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
24%
Melbourne Srbija 1+ goals
82%
Melbourne Srbija 2+ goals
51%
Melbourne Srbija 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
49%
Melbourne Srbija (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 67 matches

Melbourne Srbija away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.52 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.85 + Melbourne Srbija defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.69

Melbourne Srbija attack 1.39 + Langwarrin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Langwarrin scores more
38%
level
23%
Melbourne Srbija scores more
39%

Melbourne Srbija at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Melbourne Srbija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
C. Davies
58'
M. Basic
82'
A. Macphee
83'
E. Rossi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langwarrin vs Melbourne Srbija

Melbourne Srbija beat Langwarrin 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on August 2, 2025.

Goals: C. Davies (11'), M. Basic (58'), A. Macphee (82'), E. Rossi (83').

The match was played at Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1 in Langwarrin South.