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Langwarrin vs Kingston City — Victoria NPL 2 2021

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Kingston City
Kingston City
T. Youngs 73'
A. Macphee 68'
B. Blumenthal 23'
Unknown 36'
5/31/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 16Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Langwarrin42%
×Draw21%
Kingston City37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
2.00
Kingston City
1.88

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 57 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.85
Kingston City
1.74

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.03
Kingston City
2.16

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
Kingston City+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Kingston City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
63%
Langwarrin or Kingston City
79%
Draw or Kingston City
58%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
23%
Kingston City wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
86%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
59%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
32%
Kingston City 1+ goals
85%
Kingston City 2+ goals
56%
Kingston City 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
53%
Kingston City (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.85, concedes 2.03 · 67 matches

Kingston City away — creates 1.74, concedes 2.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.85 + Kingston City defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.00

Kingston City attack 1.74 + Langwarrin defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Langwarrin scores more
42%
level
21%
Kingston City scores more
37%

Langwarrin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Langwarrin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
B. Blumenthal
36'
68'
A. Macphee
73'
T. Youngs

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langwarrin vs Kingston City

Langwarrin beat Kingston City 3-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on May 31, 2025.

Goals: B. Blumenthal (23'), ? (36'), A. Macphee (68'), T. Youngs (73').

The match was played at Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1 in Langwarrin South.