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Langwarrin vs Eastern Lions — Victoria NPL 2 2026

Langwarrin
Langwarrin
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Eastern Lions
Eastern Lions
Unknown 16'
Unknown 83', 6'
4/12/2025Victoria NPL 2Victoria NPL 2 · Round 10Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Langwarrin46%
×Draw22%
Eastern Lions32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langwarrin
1.96
Eastern Lions
1.61

Langwarrin creates 22% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 39 away

creates per match

Langwarrin
1.82
Eastern Lions
1.21

allows per match

Langwarrin
2.01
Eastern Lions
2.10

finishing

Langwarrin+0.00on par
Eastern Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langwarrin ↓

Eastern Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Langwarrin or draw
68%
Langwarrin or Eastern Lions
78%
Draw or Eastern Lions
54%

Winning margin

Langwarrin wins by 2+
26%
Eastern Lions wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Langwarrin 1+ goals
86%
Langwarrin 2+ goals
58%
Langwarrin 3+ goals
31%
Eastern Lions 1+ goals
80%
Eastern Lions 2+ goals
48%
Eastern Lions 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Langwarrin (draw refunded)
59%
Eastern Lions (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langwarrin at home — creates 1.82, concedes 2.01 · 68 matches

Eastern Lions away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.10 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langwarrin attack 1.82 + Eastern Lions defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 1.96

Eastern Lions attack 1.21 + Langwarrin defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Langwarrin scores more
46%
level
22%
Eastern Lions scores more
32%

Langwarrin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Langwarrin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
16'
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Victoria NPL 2: Langwarrin 1–2 Eastern Lions

Eastern Lions beat Langwarrin 2-1 in Victoria NPL 2 on April 12, 2025.

Goals: ? (6', 16', 83').

The match was played at Lawton Park Reserve - Pitch 1 in Langwarrin South.