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Langreo vs Real Oviedo II — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Langreo
Langreo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Real Oviedo II
Real Oviedo II
1/19/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Langreo52%
×Draw25%
Real Oviedo II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langreo
1.58
Real Oviedo II
0.96

Langreo creates 65% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 26 away

creates per match

Langreo
1.28
Real Oviedo II
0.92

allows per match

Langreo
1.00
Real Oviedo II
1.88

finishing

Langreo+0.00on par
Real Oviedo II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo ↓

Real Oviedo II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Langreo or draw
77%
Langreo or Real Oviedo II
75%
Draw or Real Oviedo II
48%

Winning margin

Langreo wins by 2+
27%
Real Oviedo II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Langreo 1+ goals
79%
Langreo 2+ goals
47%
Langreo 3+ goals
21%
Real Oviedo II 1+ goals
62%
Real Oviedo II 2+ goals
25%
Real Oviedo II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Langreo (draw refunded)
69%
Real Oviedo II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Real Oviedo II away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo attack 1.28 + Real Oviedo II defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.58

Real Oviedo II attack 0.92 + Langreo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Langreo scores more
52%
level
25%
Real Oviedo II scores more
23%

Langreo at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Langreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langreo vs Real Oviedo II

Langreo beat Real Oviedo II 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal in La Felguera, Langreo.