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Langreo vs Melilla — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Langreo
Langreo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Melilla
Melilla
10/6/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Langreo50%
×Draw25%
Melilla25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langreo
1.60
Melilla
1.07

Langreo creates 50% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 14 away

creates per match

Langreo
1.28
Melilla
1.14

allows per match

Langreo
1.00
Melilla
1.93

finishing

Langreo+0.00on par
Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo ↓

Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Langreo or draw
75%
Langreo or Melilla
75%
Draw or Melilla
50%

Winning margin

Langreo wins by 2+
26%
Melilla wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Langreo 1+ goals
80%
Langreo 2+ goals
47%
Langreo 3+ goals
22%
Melilla 1+ goals
66%
Melilla 2+ goals
29%
Melilla 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Langreo (draw refunded)
66%
Melilla (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Melilla away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo attack 1.28 + Melilla defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.60

Melilla attack 1.14 + Langreo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Langreo scores more
50%
level
25%
Melilla scores more
25%

Langreo at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Langreo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: Langreo 0–1 Melilla

Melilla beat Langreo 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal in La Felguera, Langreo.