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Langreo vs Marino de Luanco — League #875 2026

Langreo
Langreo
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Marino de Luanco
Marino de Luanco
1/11/2026League #875League #875 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Langreo33%
×Draw28%
Marino de Luanco39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langreo
1.13
Marino de Luanco
1.26

Marino de Luanco creates 12% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

Langreo
1.04
Marino de Luanco
1.22

allows per match

Langreo
1.30
Marino de Luanco
1.22

finishing

Langreo+0.00on par
Marino de Luanco+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo ↓

Marino de Luanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Langreo or draw
61%
Langreo or Marino de Luanco
72%
Draw or Marino de Luanco
67%

Winning margin

Langreo wins by 2+
13%
Marino de Luanco wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Langreo 1+ goals
68%
Langreo 2+ goals
31%
Langreo 3+ goals
11%
Marino de Luanco 1+ goals
72%
Marino de Luanco 2+ goals
36%
Marino de Luanco 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Langreo (draw refunded)
46%
Marino de Luanco (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

Marino de Luanco away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo attack 1.04 + Marino de Luanco defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Marino de Luanco attack 1.22 + Langreo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Langreo scores more
33%
level
28%
Marino de Luanco scores more
39%

Marino de Luanco at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Marino de Luanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #875: Langreo 0–3 Marino de Luanco

Marino de Luanco beat Langreo 3-0 in League #875 on January 11, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal in La Felguera, Langreo.