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Langreo II vs San Martín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Langreo II
Langreo II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
San Martín
San Martín
4/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 35Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Langreo II29%
×Draw25%
San Martín46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langreo II
1.22
San Martín
1.58

San Martín creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 78 away

creates per match

Langreo II
0.89
San Martín
1.12

allows per match

Langreo II
2.05
San Martín
1.55

finishing

Langreo II+0.00on par
San Martín+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo II ↓

San Martín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Langreo II or draw
54%
Langreo II or San Martín
75%
Draw or San Martín
71%

Winning margin

Langreo II wins by 2+
12%
San Martín wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Langreo II 1+ goals
70%
Langreo II 2+ goals
34%
Langreo II 3+ goals
12%
San Martín 1+ goals
79%
San Martín 2+ goals
47%
San Martín 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Langreo II (draw refunded)
39%
San Martín (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

San Martín away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo II attack 0.89 + San Martín defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.22

San Martín attack 1.12 + Langreo II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Langreo II scores more
29%
level
25%
San Martín scores more
46%

San Martín at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Martín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Langreo II 1–2 San Martín

San Martín beat Langreo II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal in La Felguera, Langreo.