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Langreo II vs Navarro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Langreo II
Langreo II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Navarro
Navarro
9/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Langreo II32%
×Draw26%
Navarro42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langreo II
1.26
Navarro
1.47

Navarro creates 17% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 63 away

creates per match

Langreo II
0.89
Navarro
0.89

allows per match

Langreo II
2.05
Navarro
1.63

finishing

Langreo II+0.00on par
Navarro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo II ↓

Navarro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Langreo II or draw
58%
Langreo II or Navarro
74%
Draw or Navarro
68%

Winning margin

Langreo II wins by 2+
14%
Navarro wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Langreo II 1+ goals
72%
Langreo II 2+ goals
36%
Langreo II 3+ goals
13%
Navarro 1+ goals
77%
Navarro 2+ goals
43%
Navarro 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Langreo II (draw refunded)
44%
Navarro (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Navarro away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.63 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo II attack 0.89 + Navarro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.26

Navarro attack 0.89 + Langreo II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Langreo II scores more
32%
level
26%
Navarro scores more
42%

Navarro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Navarro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Langreo II 2–1 Navarro

Langreo II beat Navarro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal in La Felguera, Langreo.