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Langreo II vs Luarca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Langreo II
Langreo II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Luarca
Luarca
11/28/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Langreo II35%
×Draw26%
Luarca39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langreo II
1.31
Luarca
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 51 away

creates per match

Langreo II
0.89
Luarca
0.75

allows per match

Langreo II
2.05
Luarca
1.73

finishing

Langreo II+0.00on par
Luarca+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo II ↓

Luarca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Langreo II or draw
61%
Langreo II or Luarca
74%
Draw or Luarca
65%

Winning margin

Langreo II wins by 2+
15%
Luarca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Langreo II 1+ goals
73%
Langreo II 2+ goals
38%
Langreo II 3+ goals
14%
Luarca 1+ goals
75%
Luarca 2+ goals
41%
Luarca 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Langreo II (draw refunded)
47%
Luarca (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Luarca away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo II attack 0.89 + Luarca defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Luarca attack 0.75 + Langreo II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Langreo II scores more
35%
level
26%
Luarca scores more
39%

Luarca at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Luarca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Langreo II 1–2 Luarca

Luarca beat Langreo II 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal in La Felguera, Langreo.