Langreo II 0–1 Colunga: Result & Stats

Langreo II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Colunga

3/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 28Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Langreo II27%

×Draw25%

Colunga47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Langreo IIExpected goals in this matchColunga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.54

Langreo II

1.11

Colunga

1.54

Colunga creates 39% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 113 away

0.89

creates per match

1.04

2.05

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Langreo II

0.89

Colunga

1.04

allows per match

Langreo II

2.05

Colunga

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langreo II+0.00on par

Colunga+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo II ↓

Colunga →

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Langreo II or draw

53%

Langreo II or Colunga

75%

Draw or Colunga

73%

Winning margin

Langreo II wins by 2+

11%

Colunga wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Langreo II 1+ goals

67%

Langreo II 2+ goals

30%

Langreo II 3+ goals

10%

Colunga 1+ goals

79%

Colunga 2+ goals

45%

Colunga 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Langreo II (draw refunded)

37%

Colunga (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Langreo II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Colunga away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Langreo II attack 0.89 + Colunga defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Colunga attack 1.04 + Langreo II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Langreo II scores more

27%

level

25%

Colunga scores more

47%

Colunga at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Colunga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff