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Langreo II vs Caudal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Langreo II
Langreo II
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Caudal
Caudal
3/19/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 30Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Langreo II21%
×Draw24%
Caudal55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langreo II
0.93
Caudal
1.70

Caudal creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 113 away

creates per match

Langreo II
0.89
Caudal
1.35

allows per match

Langreo II
2.05
Caudal
0.96

finishing

Langreo II+0.00on par
Caudal+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langreo II ↓

Caudal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Langreo II or draw
45%
Langreo II or Caudal
76%
Draw or Caudal
79%

Winning margin

Langreo II wins by 2+
7%
Caudal wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Langreo II 1+ goals
61%
Langreo II 2+ goals
24%
Langreo II 3+ goals
7%
Caudal 1+ goals
82%
Caudal 2+ goals
51%
Caudal 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Langreo II (draw refunded)
27%
Caudal (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langreo II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 2.05 · 19 matches

Caudal away — creates 1.35, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langreo II attack 0.89 + Caudal defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.93

Caudal attack 1.35 + Langreo II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Langreo II scores more
21%
level
24%
Caudal scores more
55%

Caudal at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Caudal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langreo II vs Caudal

Caudal beat Langreo II 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Ganzábal in La Felguera, Langreo.