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Langenthal vs Muri — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Langenthal
Langenthal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Muri
Muri
11/19/20231. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Hauptplatz Rankmatte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Langenthal60%
×Draw18%
Muri22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langenthal
2.59
Muri
1.52

Langenthal creates 70% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 30 away

creates per match

Langenthal
1.71
Muri
1.50

allows per match

Langenthal
1.53
Muri
3.47

finishing

Langenthal+0.00on par
Muri+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenthal ↓

Muri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Langenthal or draw
78%
Langenthal or Muri
82%
Draw or Muri
40%

Winning margin

Langenthal wins by 2+
39%
Muri wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Langenthal 1+ goals
92%
Langenthal 2+ goals
73%
Langenthal 3+ goals
47%
Muri 1+ goals
78%
Muri 2+ goals
45%
Muri 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Langenthal (draw refunded)
74%
Muri (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenthal at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 86 matches

Muri away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenthal attack 1.71 + Muri defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.59

Muri attack 1.50 + Langenthal defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Langenthal scores more
60%
level
18%
Muri scores more
22%

Langenthal at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Langenthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Langenthal 1–0 Muri

Langenthal beat Muri 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Hauptplatz Rankmatte in Langenthal.