Langenthal 0–0 Köniz: Result & Stats

Langenthal

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Köniz

8/27/2023

1. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Hauptplatz Rankmatte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Langenthal44%

×Draw24%

Köniz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LangenthalExpected goals in this matchKöniz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.44

Langenthal

1.69

Köniz

1.44

Langenthal creates 17% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 43 away

1.71

creates per match

1.35

1.53

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Langenthal

1.71

Köniz

1.35

allows per match

Langenthal

1.53

Köniz

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langenthal+0.00on par

Köniz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenthal ↓

Köniz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Langenthal or draw

67%

Langenthal or Köniz

76%

Draw or Köniz

56%

Winning margin

Langenthal wins by 2+

23%

Köniz wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Langenthal 1+ goals

82%

Langenthal 2+ goals

50%

Langenthal 3+ goals

24%

Köniz 1+ goals

76%

Köniz 2+ goals

42%

Köniz 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Langenthal (draw refunded)

57%

Köniz (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenthal at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 86 matches

Köniz away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.67 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenthal attack 1.71 + Köniz defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Köniz attack 1.35 + Langenthal defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Langenthal scores more

44%

level

24%

Köniz scores more

33%

Langenthal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Langenthal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff