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Langenrohr vs Mannersdorf — Landesliga - Niederosterreich 2019

Langenrohr
Langenrohr
FT
3 – 2
Mannersdorf
Mannersdorf
5/13/2022Landesliga - NiederosterreichLandesliga - Niederosterreich · Niederösterreich - 25Sportplatz SV Langenrohr

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Langenrohr69%
×Draw17%
Mannersdorf14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langenrohr
2.48
Mannersdorf
1.03

Langenrohr creates 141% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 41 away

creates per match

Langenrohr
1.74
Mannersdorf
0.56

allows per match

Langenrohr
1.50
Mannersdorf
3.22

finishing

Langenrohr+0.00on par
Mannersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenrohr ↓

Mannersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Langenrohr or draw
86%
Langenrohr or Mannersdorf
83%
Draw or Mannersdorf
31%

Winning margin

Langenrohr wins by 2+
46%
Mannersdorf wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Langenrohr 1+ goals
92%
Langenrohr 2+ goals
70%
Langenrohr 3+ goals
44%
Mannersdorf 1+ goals
64%
Mannersdorf 2+ goals
28%
Mannersdorf 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Langenrohr (draw refunded)
83%
Mannersdorf (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenrohr at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.50 · 86 matches

Mannersdorf away — creates 0.56, concedes 3.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenrohr attack 1.74 + Mannersdorf defence 3.22 → ÷2 → 2.48

Mannersdorf attack 0.56 + Langenrohr defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Langenrohr scores more
69%
level
17%
Mannersdorf scores more
14%

Langenrohr at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Langenrohr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Niederosterreich: Langenrohr 3–2 Mannersdorf

Langenrohr beat Mannersdorf 3-2 in Landesliga - Niederosterreich on May 13, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz SV Langenrohr in Langenrohr.