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Langenegg vs Wörgl — Regionalliga - West 2018

Langenegg
Langenegg
FT
0 – 4
Wörgl
Wörgl
4/27/2019Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 24Sportplatz Fc Langenegg (Langenegg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Langenegg32%
×Draw21%
Wörgl47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langenegg
1.71
Wörgl
2.10

Wörgl creates 23% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 15 away

creates per match

Langenegg
1.42
Wörgl
2.00

allows per match

Langenegg
2.21
Wörgl
2.00

finishing

Langenegg+0.00on par
Wörgl+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenegg ↓

Wörgl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Langenegg or draw
53%
Langenegg or Wörgl
79%
Draw or Wörgl
68%

Winning margin

Langenegg wins by 2+
16%
Wörgl wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Langenegg 1+ goals
82%
Langenegg 2+ goals
51%
Langenegg 3+ goals
24%
Wörgl 1+ goals
88%
Wörgl 2+ goals
62%
Wörgl 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Langenegg (draw refunded)
40%
Wörgl (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenegg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

Wörgl away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenegg attack 1.42 + Wörgl defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Wörgl attack 2.00 + Langenegg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Langenegg scores more
32%
level
21%
Wörgl scores more
47%

Wörgl at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wörgl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Langenegg 0–4 Wörgl

Wörgl beat Langenegg 4-0 in Regionalliga - West on April 27, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fc Langenegg (Langenegg).