Langenegg 2–3 TSV St. Johann: Result & Stats

Langenegg

FT

2 – 3

TSV St. Johann

5/29/2019

Regionalliga - West · Round 30Sportplatz Fc Langenegg (Langenegg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Langenegg38%

×Draw23%

TSV St. Johann39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LangeneggExpected goals in this matchTSV St. Johann

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.71

Langenegg

1.70

TSV St. Johann

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 63 away

1.42

creates per match

1.22

2.21

allows per match

1.98

creates per match

Langenegg

1.42

TSV St. Johann

1.22

allows per match

Langenegg

2.21

TSV St. Johann

1.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langenegg+0.00on par

TSV St. Johann+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenegg ↓

TSV St. Johann →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Langenegg or draw

61%

Langenegg or TSV St. Johann

77%

Draw or TSV St. Johann

62%

Winning margin

Langenegg wins by 2+

20%

TSV St. Johann wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Langenegg 1+ goals

82%

Langenegg 2+ goals

51%

Langenegg 3+ goals

24%

TSV St. Johann 1+ goals

82%

TSV St. Johann 2+ goals

51%

TSV St. Johann 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Langenegg (draw refunded)

50%

TSV St. Johann (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenegg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

TSV St. Johann away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.98 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenegg attack 1.42 + TSV St. Johann defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.70

TSV St. Johann attack 1.22 + Langenegg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Langenegg scores more

38%

level

23%

TSV St. Johann scores more

39%

TSV St. Johann at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "TSV St. Johann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff