Langenegg 2–4 Pinzgau Saalfelden: Result & Stats

Langenegg

FT

2 – 4

Pinzgau Saalfelden

5/25/2019

Regionalliga - West · Round 28Sportplatz Fc Langenegg (Langenegg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Langenegg41%

×Draw23%

Pinzgau Saalfelden36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LangeneggExpected goals in this matchPinzgau Saalfelden

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.55

Langenegg

1.67

Pinzgau Saalfelden

1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 62 away

1.42

creates per match

0.90

2.21

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Langenegg

1.42

Pinzgau Saalfelden

0.90

allows per match

Langenegg

2.21

Pinzgau Saalfelden

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Langenegg+0.00on par

Pinzgau Saalfelden+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenegg ↓

Pinzgau Saalfelden →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Langenegg or draw

64%

Langenegg or Pinzgau Saalfelden

77%

Draw or Pinzgau Saalfelden

59%

Winning margin

Langenegg wins by 2+

21%

Pinzgau Saalfelden wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Langenegg 1+ goals

81%

Langenegg 2+ goals

50%

Langenegg 3+ goals

23%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 1+ goals

79%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 2+ goals

46%

Pinzgau Saalfelden 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Langenegg (draw refunded)

53%

Pinzgau Saalfelden (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenegg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

Pinzgau Saalfelden away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.92 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenegg attack 1.42 + Pinzgau Saalfelden defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.67

Pinzgau Saalfelden attack 0.90 + Langenegg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Langenegg scores more

41%

level

23%

Pinzgau Saalfelden scores more

36%

Langenegg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Langenegg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff