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Langenegg vs Kufstein — Regionalliga - West 2018

Langenegg
Langenegg
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Kufstein
Kufstein
9/22/2018Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 10Sportplatz Fc Langenegg (Langenegg)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Langenegg35%
×Draw22%
Kufstein42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langenegg
1.65
Kufstein
1.82

Kufstein creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 61 away

creates per match

Langenegg
1.42
Kufstein
1.43

allows per match

Langenegg
2.21
Kufstein
1.89

finishing

Langenegg+0.00on par
Kufstein+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenegg ↓

Kufstein →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Langenegg or draw
58%
Langenegg or Kufstein
78%
Draw or Kufstein
65%

Winning margin

Langenegg wins by 2+
17%
Kufstein wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Langenegg 1+ goals
81%
Langenegg 2+ goals
49%
Langenegg 3+ goals
23%
Kufstein 1+ goals
84%
Kufstein 2+ goals
54%
Kufstein 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Langenegg (draw refunded)
46%
Kufstein (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenegg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

Kufstein away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.89 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenegg attack 1.42 + Kufstein defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.65

Kufstein attack 1.43 + Langenegg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Langenegg scores more
35%
level
22%
Kufstein scores more
42%

Kufstein at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kufstein will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langenegg vs Kufstein

Kufstein beat Langenegg 6-0 in Regionalliga - West on September 22, 2018.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fc Langenegg (Langenegg).