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Langenegg vs Dornbirner SV — Regionalliga - West 2018

Langenegg
Langenegg
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dornbirner SV
Dornbirner SV
10/12/2019Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - 14Sportplatz Fc Langenegg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Langenegg38%
×Draw22%
Dornbirner SV40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langenegg
1.83
Dornbirner SV
1.89

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 51 away

creates per match

Langenegg
1.42
Dornbirner SV
1.57

allows per match

Langenegg
2.21
Dornbirner SV
2.24

finishing

Langenegg+0.00on par
Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langenegg ↓

Dornbirner SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Langenegg or draw
60%
Langenegg or Dornbirner SV
78%
Draw or Dornbirner SV
62%

Winning margin

Langenegg wins by 2+
20%
Dornbirner SV wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Langenegg 1+ goals
84%
Langenegg 2+ goals
54%
Langenegg 3+ goals
28%
Dornbirner SV 1+ goals
85%
Dornbirner SV 2+ goals
56%
Dornbirner SV 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Langenegg (draw refunded)
48%
Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langenegg at home — creates 1.42, concedes 2.21 · 24 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langenegg attack 1.42 + Dornbirner SV defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Dornbirner SV attack 1.57 + Langenegg defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Langenegg scores more
38%
level
22%
Dornbirner SV scores more
40%

Dornbirner SV at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dornbirner SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Langenegg 2–1 Dornbirner SV

Langenegg beat Dornbirner SV 2-1 in Regionalliga - West on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Fc Langenegg in Langenegg.