Lane United 1–0 Victoria Highlanders

Lane United

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Victoria Highlanders

6/30/2019

USL League Two · Round 7Marist Catholic High School

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Lane United45%

×Draw23%

Victoria Highlanders32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lane UnitedExpected goals in this matchVictoria Highlanders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.50

Lane United

1.81

Victoria Highlanders

1.50

Lane United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 5 away

1.83

creates per match

1.40

1.61

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Lane United

1.83

Victoria Highlanders

1.40

allows per match

Lane United

1.61

Victoria Highlanders

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lane United+0.00on par

Victoria Highlanders+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lane United ↓

Victoria Highlanders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Lane United or draw

68%

Lane United or Victoria Highlanders

77%

Draw or Victoria Highlanders

55%

Winning margin

Lane United wins by 2+

24%

Victoria Highlanders wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lane United 1+ goals

84%

Lane United 2+ goals

54%

Lane United 3+ goals

27%

Victoria Highlanders 1+ goals

78%

Victoria Highlanders 2+ goals

44%

Victoria Highlanders 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lane United (draw refunded)

58%

Victoria Highlanders (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lane United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

Victoria Highlanders away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lane United attack 1.83 + Victoria Highlanders defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.81

Victoria Highlanders attack 1.40 + Lane United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lane United scores more

45%

level

23%

Victoria Highlanders scores more

32%

Lane United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lane United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lane United vs Victoria Highlanders

Lane United beat Victoria Highlanders 1-0 in USL League Two on June 30, 2019.

The match was played at Marist Catholic High School.

Lane United vs Victoria Highlanders — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Lane United vs Victoria Highlanders