Lane United 5–2 United PDX: Result & Stats

Lane United

FT

5 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

United PDX

6/3/2023

USL League Two · Western Conference - 5Civic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lane United39%

×Draw23%

United PDX38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lane UnitedExpected goals in this matchUnited PDX

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.63

Lane United

1.67

United PDX

1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 14 away

1.83

creates per match

1.64

1.61

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Lane United

1.83

United PDX

1.64

allows per match

Lane United

1.61

United PDX

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lane United+0.00on par

United PDX+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lane United ↓

United PDX →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Lane United or draw

62%

Lane United or United PDX

77%

Draw or United PDX

61%

Winning margin

Lane United wins by 2+

20%

United PDX wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Lane United 1+ goals

81%

Lane United 2+ goals

50%

Lane United 3+ goals

23%

United PDX 1+ goals

80%

United PDX 2+ goals

48%

United PDX 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Lane United (draw refunded)

51%

United PDX (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lane United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

United PDX away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lane United attack 1.83 + United PDX defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.67

United PDX attack 1.64 + Lane United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lane United scores more

39%

level

23%

United PDX scores more

38%

Lane United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lane United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Lane United 5–2 United PDX

Lane United beat United PDX 5-2 in USL League Two on June 3, 2023.

The match was played at Civic Park in Eugene, Oregon.

Lane United vs United PDX — USL League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

USL League Two: Lane United 5–2 United PDX