Lane United 3–0 OVF Alliance: Result & Stats

Lane United

FT

3 – 0

OVF Alliance

6/19/2021

USL League Two · Round 30Civic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lane United47%

×Draw21%

OVF Alliance32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lane UnitedExpected goals in this matchOVF Alliance

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

1.68

Lane United

2.08

OVF Alliance

1.68

Lane United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 12 away

1.83

creates per match

1.75

1.61

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Lane United

1.83

OVF Alliance

1.75

allows per match

Lane United

1.61

OVF Alliance

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lane United+0.00on par

OVF Alliance+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lane United ↓

OVF Alliance →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Lane United or draw

68%

Lane United or OVF Alliance

79%

Draw or OVF Alliance

53%

Winning margin

Lane United wins by 2+

27%

OVF Alliance wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Lane United 1+ goals

87%

Lane United 2+ goals

61%

Lane United 3+ goals

34%

OVF Alliance 1+ goals

81%

OVF Alliance 2+ goals

50%

OVF Alliance 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Lane United (draw refunded)

60%

OVF Alliance (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lane United at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 36 matches

OVF Alliance away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lane United attack 1.83 + OVF Alliance defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.08

OVF Alliance attack 1.75 + Lane United defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lane United scores more

47%

level

21%

OVF Alliance scores more

32%

Lane United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lane United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff