Lane United 3–1 Midlakes United: Result & Stats

Lane United

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Midlakes United

5/19/2024

USL League Two · Western Conference - 2Civic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Lane United51%

×Draw21%

Midlakes United27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lane UnitedExpected goals in this matchMidlakes United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.44

Lane United

2.05

Midlakes United

1.44

Lane United creates 42% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 18 away

1.93

creates per match

1.39

1.50

allows per match

2.17

creates per match

Lane United

1.93

Midlakes United

1.39

allows per match

Lane United

1.50

Midlakes United

2.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lane United+0.00on par

Midlakes United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lane United ↓

Midlakes United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Lane United or draw

73%

Lane United or Midlakes United

79%

Draw or Midlakes United

49%

Winning margin

Lane United wins by 2+

30%

Midlakes United wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lane United 1+ goals

87%

Lane United 2+ goals

61%

Lane United 3+ goals

33%

Midlakes United 1+ goals

76%

Midlakes United 2+ goals

42%

Midlakes United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lane United (draw refunded)

66%

Midlakes United (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lane United at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

Midlakes United away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lane United attack 1.93 + Midlakes United defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.05

Midlakes United attack 1.39 + Lane United defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lane United scores more

51%

level

21%

Midlakes United scores more

27%

Lane United at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lane United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff