Lane United 3–0 Bigfoot: Result & Stats

Lane United

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Bigfoot

6/1/2025

USL League Two · Western Conference - 6Civic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Lane United62%

×Draw18%

Bigfoot20%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lane UnitedExpected goals in this matchBigfoot

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

1.44

Lane United

2.60

Bigfoot

1.44

Lane United creates 81% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.92

creates per match

1.29

1.58

allows per match

3.29

creates per match

Lane United

1.92

Bigfoot

1.29

allows per match

Lane United

1.58

Bigfoot

3.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lane United+0.00on par

Bigfoot+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lane United ↓

Bigfoot →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Lane United or draw

80%

Lane United or Bigfoot

82%

Draw or Bigfoot

38%

Winning margin

Lane United wins by 2+

41%

Bigfoot wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Lane United 1+ goals

92%

Lane United 2+ goals

73%

Lane United 3+ goals

47%

Bigfoot 1+ goals

76%

Bigfoot 2+ goals

42%

Bigfoot 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Lane United (draw refunded)

76%

Bigfoot (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lane United at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Bigfoot away — creates 1.29, concedes 3.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lane United attack 1.92 + Bigfoot defence 3.29 → ÷2 → 2.60

Bigfoot attack 1.29 + Lane United defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lane United scores more

62%

level

18%

Bigfoot scores more

20%

Lane United at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lane United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff