Landskrona BoIS 1–1 IFK Varnamo: Result & Stats

Landskrona BoIS

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

IFK Varnamo

E. Lindman 89'

Unknown 30'

3/15/2025

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Landskrona Idrottsplats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Landskrona BoIS50%

×Draw24%

IFK Varnamo26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Landskrona BoISExpected goals in this matchIFK Varnamo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.19

Landskrona BoIS

1.75

IFK Varnamo

1.19

Landskrona BoIS creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.13

creates per match

0.75

1.63

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS

2.13

IFK Varnamo

0.75

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.63

IFK Varnamo

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

IFK Varnamo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

IFK Varnamo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw

74%

Landskrona BoIS or IFK Varnamo

76%

Draw or IFK Varnamo

50%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

27%

IFK Varnamo wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

83%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

52%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

25%

IFK Varnamo 1+ goals

70%

IFK Varnamo 2+ goals

33%

IFK Varnamo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

66%

IFK Varnamo (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.63 · 8 matches

IFK Varnamo away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 2.13 + IFK Varnamo defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.75

IFK Varnamo attack 0.75 + Landskrona BoIS defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more

50%

level

24%

IFK Varnamo scores more

26%

Landskrona BoIS at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Landskrona BoIS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

89'

E. Lindman

Landskrona

IFK

Manager: Robin Asterhed

Manager: Arne Sandstø