Landskrona BoIS 3–2 BK Hacken: Result & Stats

Landskrona BoIS

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

BK Hacken

V. Karlsson 77'

A. Egnell 55'

R. Dzabic 29'

S. Sandberg 45+2'

J. Lindberg 13'

2/26/2024

Svenska Cupen · Group Stage - 2Landskrona IP E-plan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Landskrona BoIS15%

×Draw16%

BK Hacken69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Landskrona BoISExpected goals in this matchBK Hacken

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.30

2.86

Landskrona BoIS

1.30

BK Hacken

2.86

BK Hacken creates 120% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

1.38

creates per match

3.72

2.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Landskrona BoIS

1.38

BK Hacken

3.72

allows per match

Landskrona BoIS

2.00

BK Hacken

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Landskrona BoIS+0.00on par

BK Hacken+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landskrona BoIS ↓

BK Hacken →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–29%

1–38%

1–46%

2

2–01%

2–14%

2–26%

2–35%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–42%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Landskrona BoIS or draw

31%

Landskrona BoIS or BK Hacken

84%

Draw or BK Hacken

85%

Winning margin

Landskrona BoIS wins by 2+

6%

BK Hacken wins by 2+

48%

Team goals

Landskrona BoIS 1+ goals

73%

Landskrona BoIS 2+ goals

37%

Landskrona BoIS 3+ goals

14%

BK Hacken 1+ goals

94%

BK Hacken 2+ goals

77%

BK Hacken 3+ goals

53%

Draw no bet

Landskrona BoIS (draw refunded)

18%

BK Hacken (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landskrona BoIS at home — creates 1.38, concedes 2.00 · 8 matches

BK Hacken away — creates 3.72, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landskrona BoIS attack 1.38 + BK Hacken defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

BK Hacken attack 3.72 + Landskrona BoIS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Landskrona BoIS scores more

15%

level

16%

BK Hacken scores more

69%

BK Hacken at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "BK Hacken will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

J. Lindberg

27'

M. Nilsson← E. Lindman

29'

42'

45+2'

49'

55'

56'

57'

B. Turgott← S. Hrstić

73'

S. Hegdal← R. Dzabic

73'

I. Abdulrazak← S. Sandberg

76'

O. Kamara← A. Youssef

77'

V. Karlsson

81'

M. Rygaard

81'

M. Mohamed← A. Egnell

81'

S. Burakovsky← V. Sundberg

88'

N. Zecevic

90+3'

A. Lundqvist

Landskrona

BK

Linde

Hovland

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Egnell

⚽

Karlsson

⚽

▼

Dzabic

▼

Lindman

Ihler

Manager: M. Mölder

27'▲M. Nilsson←▼E. Lindman

73'▲S. Hegdal←▼R. Dzabic

81'▲M. Mohamed←▼A. Egnell

81'▲S. Burakovsky←▼V. Sundberg

Landskrona BoIS substitutes

NilssonHegdalMohamedBurakovskyWestströmPauliJonssonWendtHildeman

Manager: P. Johansen

57'▲B. Turgott←▼S. Hrstić

73'▲I. Abdulrazak←▼S. Sandberg

76'▲O. Kamara←▼A. Youssef

BK Hacken substitutes

TurgottAbdulrazakKamaraFayeBrusbergDembeAbrahamssonJanssonNioule