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Landsberg vs Sonthofen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Landsberg
Landsberg
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sonthofen
Sonthofen
4/13/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 293C-Sportpark Feld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Landsberg55%
×Draw21%
Sonthofen25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landsberg
2.19
Sonthofen
1.43

Landsberg creates 53% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 33 away

creates per match

Landsberg
2.61
Sonthofen
1.42

allows per match

Landsberg
1.44
Sonthofen
1.76

finishing

Landsberg+0.00on par
Sonthofen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landsberg ↓

Sonthofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Landsberg or draw
75%
Landsberg or Sonthofen
79%
Draw or Sonthofen
45%

Winning margin

Landsberg wins by 2+
33%
Sonthofen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Landsberg 1+ goals
89%
Landsberg 2+ goals
64%
Landsberg 3+ goals
37%
Sonthofen 1+ goals
76%
Sonthofen 2+ goals
42%
Sonthofen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Landsberg (draw refunded)
69%
Sonthofen (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landsberg at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Sonthofen away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landsberg attack 2.61 + Sonthofen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 2.19

Sonthofen attack 1.42 + Landsberg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Landsberg scores more
55%
level
21%
Sonthofen scores more
25%

Landsberg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Landsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Landsberg 1–2 Sonthofen

Sonthofen beat Landsberg 2-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 13, 2024.

The match was played at 3C-Sportpark Feld 1 in Landsberg am Lech.