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Landsberg vs Nordlingen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Landsberg
Landsberg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Nordlingen
Nordlingen
4/11/2026Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 293C-Sportpark Feld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Landsberg52%
×Draw20%
Nordlingen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landsberg
2.32
Nordlingen
1.69

Landsberg creates 37% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Landsberg
2.61
Nordlingen
1.95

allows per match

Landsberg
1.44
Nordlingen
2.03

finishing

Landsberg+0.00on par
Nordlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landsberg ↓

Nordlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Landsberg or draw
72%
Landsberg or Nordlingen
80%
Draw or Nordlingen
48%

Winning margin

Landsberg wins by 2+
31%
Nordlingen wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Landsberg 1+ goals
90%
Landsberg 2+ goals
67%
Landsberg 3+ goals
40%
Nordlingen 1+ goals
82%
Nordlingen 2+ goals
50%
Nordlingen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Landsberg (draw refunded)
65%
Nordlingen (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landsberg at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Nordlingen away — creates 1.95, concedes 2.03 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landsberg attack 2.61 + Nordlingen defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.32

Nordlingen attack 1.95 + Landsberg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Landsberg scores more
52%
level
20%
Nordlingen scores more
28%

Landsberg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Landsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Landsberg vs Nordlingen

Landsberg beat Nordlingen 3-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 11, 2026.

The match was played at 3C-Sportpark Feld 1 in Landsberg am Lech.