Landsberg 4–2 Kirchheimer SC: Result & Stats

Landsberg

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Kirchheimer SC

8/8/2023

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 53C-Sportpark Feld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Landsberg68%

×Draw18%

Kirchheimer SC15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LandsbergExpected goals in this matchKirchheimer SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.07

Landsberg

2.48

Kirchheimer SC

1.07

Landsberg creates 132% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 17 away

2.61

creates per match

0.71

1.44

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Landsberg

2.61

Kirchheimer SC

0.71

allows per match

Landsberg

1.44

Kirchheimer SC

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Landsberg+0.00on par

Kirchheimer SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landsberg ↓

Kirchheimer SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Landsberg or draw

85%

Landsberg or Kirchheimer SC

82%

Draw or Kirchheimer SC

32%

Winning margin

Landsberg wins by 2+

46%

Kirchheimer SC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Landsberg 1+ goals

92%

Landsberg 2+ goals

70%

Landsberg 3+ goals

44%

Kirchheimer SC 1+ goals

66%

Kirchheimer SC 2+ goals

29%

Kirchheimer SC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Landsberg (draw refunded)

82%

Kirchheimer SC (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landsberg at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Kirchheimer SC away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landsberg attack 2.61 + Kirchheimer SC defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.48

Kirchheimer SC attack 0.71 + Landsberg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Landsberg scores more

68%

level

18%

Kirchheimer SC scores more

15%

Landsberg at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Landsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff