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Landsberg vs Grünwald — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Landsberg
Landsberg
FT
10 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Grünwald
Grünwald
10/5/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 153C-Sportpark Feld 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Landsberg67%
×Draw17%
Grünwald17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Landsberg
2.77
Grünwald
1.34

Landsberg creates 107% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

creates per match

Landsberg
2.61
Grünwald
1.25

allows per match

Landsberg
1.44
Grünwald
2.94

finishing

Landsberg+0.00on par
Grünwald+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Landsberg ↓

Grünwald →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Landsberg or draw
83%
Landsberg or Grünwald
83%
Draw or Grünwald
33%

Winning margin

Landsberg wins by 2+
46%
Grünwald wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Landsberg 1+ goals
94%
Landsberg 2+ goals
76%
Landsberg 3+ goals
51%
Grünwald 1+ goals
74%
Grünwald 2+ goals
39%
Grünwald 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Landsberg (draw refunded)
80%
Grünwald (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Landsberg at home — creates 2.61, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Grünwald away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.94 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Landsberg attack 2.61 + Grünwald defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.77

Grünwald attack 1.25 + Landsberg defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Landsberg scores more
67%
level
17%
Grünwald scores more
17%

Landsberg at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Landsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Landsberg vs Grünwald

Landsberg beat Grünwald 10-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on October 5, 2024.

The match was played at 3C-Sportpark Feld 1 in Landsberg am Lech.