Lancy 1–2 Yverdon Sport II: Result & Stats

Lancy

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Yverdon Sport II

10/12/2024

1. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 11Stade de Marignac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Lancy47%

×Draw22%

Yverdon Sport II31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LancyExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.50

Lancy

1.90

Yverdon Sport II

1.50

Lancy creates 27% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

1.77

creates per match

1.47

1.54

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Lancy

1.77

Yverdon Sport II

1.47

allows per match

Lancy

1.54

Yverdon Sport II

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lancy+0.00on par

Yverdon Sport II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lancy ↓

Yverdon Sport II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Lancy or draw

69%

Lancy or Yverdon Sport II

78%

Draw or Yverdon Sport II

53%

Winning margin

Lancy wins by 2+

26%

Yverdon Sport II wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Lancy 1+ goals

85%

Lancy 2+ goals

56%

Lancy 3+ goals

29%

Yverdon Sport II 1+ goals

78%

Yverdon Sport II 2+ goals

44%

Yverdon Sport II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Lancy (draw refunded)

61%

Yverdon Sport II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lancy at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

Yverdon Sport II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lancy attack 1.77 + Yverdon Sport II defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.90

Yverdon Sport II attack 1.47 + Lancy defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Lancy scores more

47%

level

22%

Yverdon Sport II scores more

31%

Lancy at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Lancy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff