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Lanchkhuti vs Neftçi Bakı — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Lanchkhuti
Lanchkhuti
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Neftçi Bakı
Neftçi Bakı
9/7/2024UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 1st Round - 3rd Place FinalsTskaltubo Technical Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lanchkhuti46%
×Draw22%
Neftçi Bakı33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanchkhuti
2.00
Neftçi Bakı
1.67

Lanchkhuti creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lanchkhuti
1.00
Neftçi Bakı
0.33

allows per match

Lanchkhuti
3.00
Neftçi Bakı
3.00

finishing

Lanchkhuti+0.00on par
Neftçi Bakı+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanchkhuti ↓

Neftçi Bakı →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lanchkhuti or draw
67%
Lanchkhuti or Neftçi Bakı
78%
Draw or Neftçi Bakı
54%

Winning margin

Lanchkhuti wins by 2+
26%
Neftçi Bakı wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Lanchkhuti 1+ goals
86%
Lanchkhuti 2+ goals
59%
Lanchkhuti 3+ goals
32%
Neftçi Bakı 1+ goals
81%
Neftçi Bakı 2+ goals
50%
Neftçi Bakı 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Lanchkhuti (draw refunded)
58%
Neftçi Bakı (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanchkhuti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Neftçi Bakı away — creates 0.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanchkhuti attack 1.00 + Neftçi Bakı defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Neftçi Bakı attack 0.33 + Lanchkhuti defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lanchkhuti scores more
46%
level
22%
Neftçi Bakı scores more
33%

Lanchkhuti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lanchkhuti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Lanchkhuti 2–1 Neftçi Bakı

Lanchkhuti beat Neftçi Bakı 2-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Tskaltubo Technical Center in Tskhaltubo.