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Lanchkhuti vs Farul Constanţa W — UEFA Champions League Women 2019

Lanchkhuti
Lanchkhuti
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Farul Constanţa W
Farul Constanţa W
8/30/2025UEFA Champions League WomenUEFA Champions League Women · 2nd Qualifying Round - 3rd Place FinalsSiauliai central stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lanchkhuti15%
×Draw16%
Farul Constanţa W68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lanchkhuti
1.25
Farul Constanţa W
2.75

Farul Constanţa W creates 120% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Lanchkhuti
1.00
Farul Constanţa W
2.50

allows per match

Lanchkhuti
3.00
Farul Constanţa W
1.50

finishing

Lanchkhuti+0.00on par
Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lanchkhuti ↓

Farul Constanţa W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Lanchkhuti or draw
32%
Lanchkhuti or Farul Constanţa W
84%
Draw or Farul Constanţa W
85%

Winning margin

Lanchkhuti wins by 2+
6%
Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Lanchkhuti 1+ goals
71%
Lanchkhuti 2+ goals
36%
Lanchkhuti 3+ goals
13%
Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals
93%
Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals
75%
Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Lanchkhuti (draw refunded)
18%
Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lanchkhuti at home — creates 1.00, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

Farul Constanţa W away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lanchkhuti attack 1.00 + Farul Constanţa W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.25

Farul Constanţa W attack 2.50 + Lanchkhuti defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Lanchkhuti scores more
15%
level
16%
Farul Constanţa W scores more
68%

Farul Constanţa W at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Champions League Women: Lanchkhuti 1–4 Farul Constanţa W

Farul Constanţa W beat Lanchkhuti 4-1 in UEFA Champions League Women on August 30, 2025.

The match was played at Siauliai central stadium.