Lamphun Warrior 3–1 Prime Bangkok: Result & Stats

Lamphun Warrior

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Prime Bangkok

11/20/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundLamphun Warriors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lamphun Warrior29%

×Draw19%

Prime Bangkok52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lamphun WarriorExpected goals in this matchPrime Bangkok

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

2.58

Lamphun Warrior

1.90

Prime Bangkok

2.58

Prime Bangkok creates 36% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

2.13

creates per match

3.67

1.50

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior

2.13

Prime Bangkok

3.67

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior

1.50

Prime Bangkok

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Prime Bangkok+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Prime Bangkok →

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–44%

2–02%

2–15%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw

48%

Lamphun Warrior or Prime Bangkok

81%

Draw or Prime Bangkok

71%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

14%

Prime Bangkok wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

85%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

56%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

29%

Prime Bangkok 1+ goals

92%

Prime Bangkok 2+ goals

72%

Prime Bangkok 3+ goals

47%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

35%

Prime Bangkok (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

73%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Prime Bangkok away — creates 3.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.13 + Prime Bangkok defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Prime Bangkok attack 3.67 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more

29%

level

19%

Prime Bangkok scores more

52%

Prime Bangkok at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Prime Bangkok will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff