Lamphun Warrior 2–1 Prachuap: Result & Stats

Lamphun Warrior

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Prachuap

O. Mudrinski 90+3'

A. Yodsangwal 79'

Samuel 10'

12/1/2022

FA Cup · Round of 32700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Lamphun Warrior37%

×Draw22%

Prachuap42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lamphun WarriorExpected goals in this matchPrachuap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.94

Lamphun Warrior

1.81

Prachuap

1.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

2.13

creates per match

2.38

1.50

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior

2.13

Prachuap

2.38

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior

1.50

Prachuap

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Prachuap+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Prachuap →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw

58%

Lamphun Warrior or Prachuap

78%

Draw or Prachuap

63%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

19%

Prachuap wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

84%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

54%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

27%

Prachuap 1+ goals

86%

Prachuap 2+ goals

58%

Prachuap 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

47%

Prachuap (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

Prachuap away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.13 + Prachuap defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.81

Prachuap attack 2.38 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more

37%

level

22%

Prachuap scores more

42%

Prachuap at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Prachuap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Samuel

32'

P. Chotipala← E. Kongket

46'

C. Wongchai← T. Plodkeaw

66'

A. Yodsangwal← C. Buran

73'

C. Buaphan← B. Tapla

73'

O. Mudrinski← A. Pumwisat

79'

A. Yodsangwal

80'

P. Akkratum← C. Laptrakul

86'

A. Denman← P. Chotipala

90+3'

O. Mudrinski

Lamphun

Prachuap

1

23

33

27

5

▼

Kongket

19

Dae-hee

8

Karaboué

17

▼

Laptrakul

91

⚽

Samuel

29

Suksum

6

▼

20

22

29

2

36

24

32

▼

Tapla

14

Osman

41

▼

Buran

8

▼

Pumwisat

11

Maung

Manager: J. Wutchuay

66'▲A. Yodsangwal←▼C. Buran

73'▲C. Buaphan←▼B. Tapla

73'▲O. Mudrinski←▼A. Pumwisat

Lamphun Warrior substitutes

66Yodsangwal55Buaphan91Mudrinski6Lated7Ramsay16Ngamdee26Sintupun33Navanit37Khumpiam

Manager: D. Chalermsang

32'▲P. Chotipala←▼E. Kongket

46'▲C. Wongchai←▼T. Plodkeaw

80'▲P. Akkratum←▼C. Laptrakul

86'▲A. Denman←▼P. Chotipala

Prachuap substitutes

39Chotipala16Wongchai14Akkratum18Denman13Villanueva21Banhan26Suklom35Panmarchya37Sarakum

FA Cup: Lamphun Warrior 2–1 Prachuap

Lamphun Warrior beat Prachuap 2-1 in FA Cup on December 1, 2022.

Goals: Samuel (10'), A. Yodsangwal (79'), O. Mudrinski (90+3').

The match was played at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Chiang Mai.

Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap — FA Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

FA Cup: Lamphun Warrior 2–1 Prachuap