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Lamphun Warrior vs Muangkan United — Thai League 2 2018

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Muangkan United
Muangkan United
2/12/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 23Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lamphun Warrior54%
×Draw21%
Muangkan United25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
2.21
Muangkan United
1.47

Lamphun Warrior creates 50% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
2.29
Muangkan United
2.12

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.82
Muangkan United
2.12

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Muangkan United+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Muangkan United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
75%
Lamphun Warrior or Muangkan United
79%
Draw or Muangkan United
46%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
33%
Muangkan United wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
89%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
65%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
38%
Muangkan United 1+ goals
77%
Muangkan United 2+ goals
43%
Muangkan United 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
68%
Muangkan United (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Muangkan United away — creates 2.12, concedes 2.12 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.29 + Muangkan United defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.21

Muangkan United attack 2.12 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
54%
level
21%
Muangkan United scores more
25%

Lamphun Warrior at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lamphun Warrior 3–1 Muangkan United

Lamphun Warrior beat Muangkan United 3-1 in Thai League 2 on February 12, 2022.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.