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Lamphun Warrior vs Khonkaen — Thai League 2 2018

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khonkaen
Khonkaen
9/15/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 3Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lamphun Warrior62%
×Draw21%
Khonkaen17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
1.98
Khonkaen
0.92

Lamphun Warrior creates 115% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
2.29
Khonkaen
1.02

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.82
Khonkaen
1.67

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Khonkaen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
83%
Lamphun Warrior or Khonkaen
79%
Draw or Khonkaen
38%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
37%
Khonkaen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
86%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
59%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
31%
Khonkaen 1+ goals
60%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
23%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
79%
Khonkaen (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.67 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.29 + Khonkaen defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.98

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
62%
level
21%
Khonkaen scores more
17%

Lamphun Warrior at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lamphun Warrior 2–1 Khonkaen

Lamphun Warrior beat Khonkaen 2-1 in Thai League 2 on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.