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Lamphun Warrior vs Chiangmai FC — Thai League 2 2018

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
2/25/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 25Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lamphun Warrior57%
×Draw23%
Chiangmai FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
1.84
Chiangmai FC
1.01

Lamphun Warrior creates 82% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 82 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
2.29
Chiangmai FC
1.20

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.82
Chiangmai FC
1.39

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Chiangmai FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
79%
Lamphun Warrior or Chiangmai FC
77%
Draw or Chiangmai FC
43%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
33%
Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
84%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
55%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
28%
Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
64%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
27%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
73%
Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.29 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.84

Chiangmai FC attack 1.20 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
57%
level
23%
Chiangmai FC scores more
21%

Lamphun Warrior at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Lamphun Warrior 3–2 Chiangmai FC

Lamphun Warrior beat Chiangmai FC 3-2 in Thai League 2 on February 25, 2022.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.