Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Buriram United: Result & Stats

Lamphun Warrior

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Buriram United

3 Dion Cools 90+13'

Bissoli 90+8' (pen)

5/31/2025

League Cup · FinalBG Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Lamphun Warrior5%

×Draw14%

Buriram United81%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lamphun WarriorExpected goals in this matchBuriram United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.41

2.38

Lamphun Warrior

0.41

Buriram United

2.38

Buriram United creates 480% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

0.50

creates per match

3.00

1.75

allows per match

0.31

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior

0.50

Buriram United

3.00

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior

1.75

Buriram United

0.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Buriram United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Buriram United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–115%

0–218%

0–314%

0–48%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–01%

2–11%

2–21%

2–31%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–10%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (18%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw

19%

Lamphun Warrior or Buriram United

86%

Draw or Buriram United

95%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+

1%

Buriram United wins by 2+

58%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals

34%

Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals

6%

Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals

1%

Buriram United 1+ goals

91%

Buriram United 2+ goals

68%

Buriram United 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)

6%

Buriram United (draw refunded)

94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

Buriram United away — creates 3.00, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 0.50 + Buriram United defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.41

Buriram United attack 3.00 + Lamphun Warrior defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more

5%

level

14%

Buriram United scores more

81%

Buriram United at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Buriram United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Fabinho

64'

D. Cools

66'

K. Nareechan

69'

M. Boakye← Lucas Crispim

74'

M. Boakye

74'

K. Dougall

79'

A. Yodsangwal

79'

K. Linares← A. Yodsangwal

79'

W. Moonwong← S. Singmui

80'

Bissoli

80'

W. Moonwong

82'

P. Sookjitthammakul← S. Haiprakhon

84'

Júnior Batista← Negueba

90+6'

N. Etheridge

90+7'

Victor Cardozo

90+11'

C. Good← Bissoli

90+8'

BissoliPenalty

90+13'

3 Dion Cools

Lamphun

Buriram

13

Etheridge

5

Bunmathan

11

⚽

Cools

2

▼

22

40

44

16

10

▼

Crispim

9

Chaided

7

⚽

▼

40

6

5

30

▼

Singmui

27

Noiwilai

7

▼

14

55

8

99

11

▼

Yodsangwa

Manager: Alexandre Gama

79'▲K. Linares←▼A. Yodsangwal

79'▲W. Moonwong←▼S. Singmui

84'▲Júnior Batista←▼Negueba

Lamphun Warrior substitutes

4Linares2Moonwong93Batista23Clowuttiwat29Khotrsupho20Muangngam3Inpaen17Intanee32Tapla89Churok22Kerdkeaw21Chuchin

Manager: Osmar Loss

69'▲M. Boakye←▼Lucas Crispim

82'▲P. Sookjitthammakul←▼S. Haiprakhon

90+11'▲C. Good←▼Bissoli

Buriram United substitutes

45Boakye27Sookjitthammakul6Good88Buranajutanon34Bootprom8Maikami95Ratree28Creevey4James54Rattanasuwan18Berg

League Cup: Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Buriram United

Buriram United beat Lamphun Warrior 2-0 in League Cup on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Bissoli (90+8' pen), 3 Dion Cools (90+13').

The match was played at BG Stadium in Pathum Thani.

Lamphun Warrior vs Buriram United — League Cup 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Cup: Lamphun Warrior 0–2 Buriram United