Lampang FC 2–1 Warin Chamrap: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Warin Chamrap

11/20/2024

FA Cup · 2nd RoundLampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lampang FC90%

×Draw6%

Warin Chamrap4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchWarin Chamrap

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

5.00

1.14

Lampang FC

5.00

Warin Chamrap

1.14

Lampang FC creates 339% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

4.00

creates per match

0.67

1.60

allows per match

6.00

creates per match

Lampang FC

4.00

Warin Chamrap

0.67

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.60

Warin Chamrap

6.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Warin Chamrap+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Warin Chamrap →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–01%

1–12%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–04%

2–14%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–07%

4–18%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

82%18%4.5

65%35%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

96%

Lampang FC or Warin Chamrap

94%

Draw or Warin Chamrap

10%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

78%

Warin Chamrap wins by 2+

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

99%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

95%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

84%

Warin Chamrap 1+ goals

68%

Warin Chamrap 2+ goals

32%

Warin Chamrap 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

96%

Warin Chamrap (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Warin Chamrap away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 4.00 + Warin Chamrap defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 5.00

Warin Chamrap attack 0.67 + Lampang FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 90%?"

Lampang FC scores more

90%

level

Warin Chamrap scores more

Lampang FC at 90% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 90% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff