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Lampang FC vs Super Power — FA Cup 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
6 – 0
Super Power
Super Power
10/4/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundLampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lampang FC81%
×Draw11%
Super Power8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
3.33
Super Power
0.97

Lampang FC creates 243% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
4.00
Super Power
0.33

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.60
Super Power
2.67

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
Super Power+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Super Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
92%
Lampang FC or Super Power
89%
Draw or Super Power
19%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
63%
Super Power wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
96%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
84%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
63%
Super Power 1+ goals
62%
Super Power 2+ goals
25%
Super Power 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
91%
Super Power (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Super Power away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 4.00 + Super Power defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 3.33

Super Power attack 0.33 + Lampang FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

Lampang FC scores more
81%
level
11%
Super Power scores more
8%

Lampang FC at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs Super Power

Lampang FC beat Super Power 6-0 in FA Cup on October 4, 2023.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.