Lampang FC 0–2 Sisaket: Result & Stats

Lampang FC

FT

0 – 2

Sisaket

8/25/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 28Lampang Provincial Stadium (Lampang)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Lampang FC45%

×Draw27%

Sisaket28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lampang FCExpected goals in this matchSisaket

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.00

Lampang FC

1.36

Sisaket

1.00

Lampang FC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 48 away

1.48

creates per match

1.00

1.01

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Lampang FC

1.48

Sisaket

1.00

allows per match

Lampang FC

1.01

Sisaket

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par

Sisaket+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

Sisaket →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw

72%

Lampang FC or Sisaket

73%

Draw or Sisaket

55%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+

21%

Sisaket wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals

74%

Lampang FC 2+ goals

39%

Lampang FC 3+ goals

16%

Sisaket 1+ goals

63%

Sisaket 2+ goals

26%

Sisaket 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)

62%

Sisaket (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 101 matches

Sisaket away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 1.48 + Sisaket defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Sisaket attack 1.00 + Lampang FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Lampang FC scores more

45%

level

27%

Sisaket scores more

28%

Lampang FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff