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Lampang FC vs See Kwae — FA Cup 2018

Lampang FC
Lampang FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
See Kwae
See Kwae
11/2/2022FA CupFA Cup · 2nd RoundLampang Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Lampang FC61%
×Draw17%
See Kwae22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lampang FC
3.00
See Kwae
1.80

Lampang FC creates 67% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Lampang FC
4.00
See Kwae
2.00

allows per match

Lampang FC
1.60
See Kwae
2.00

finishing

Lampang FC+0.00on par
See Kwae+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lampang FC ↓

See Kwae →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
51%49%

Double chance

Lampang FC or draw
78%
Lampang FC or See Kwae
83%
Draw or See Kwae
39%

Winning margin

Lampang FC wins by 2+
42%
See Kwae wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Lampang FC 1+ goals
95%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
79%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
56%
See Kwae 1+ goals
83%
See Kwae 2+ goals
54%
See Kwae 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Lampang FC (draw refunded)
74%
See Kwae (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lampang FC at home — creates 4.00, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

See Kwae away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lampang FC attack 4.00 + See Kwae defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.00

See Kwae attack 2.00 + Lampang FC defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Lampang FC scores more
61%
level
17%
See Kwae scores more
22%

Lampang FC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lampang FC vs See Kwae

Lampang FC beat See Kwae 3-1 in FA Cup on November 2, 2022.

The match was played at Lampang Provincial Stadium in Lampang.